Winner
Chuck Hubbard 56.7%
Riding profile
NC-5
The question
NC-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.8
- P(close race)
- 18%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNC-5 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +8.5 | 54.3% −7.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
NC-5, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
FOXX, VIRGINIA ANN
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Virginia Foxx 74.5%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Foxx, Virginia Ann
-
Democrat Challenger Hubbard, Chuck
- Other Challenger
Clayton, David
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026