North Carolina’s 5th District

U.S. House · NC-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 85% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.6 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 54.1%

Virginia Foxx, incumbent
Democrat 45.9%

Chuck Hubbard

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 67% chance (85% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	85%
Orbit	Republican	67%
50/50 blend	Republican	76%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
NC-5	54.1%	45.9%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+10.2	54.9%−9.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.4% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Virginia Foxx · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Chuck Hubbard	56.7%	25,655 votes
Republican primary	Virginia Foxx	74.5%	53,627 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Virginia Foxx
source
Democrat Challenger

Chuck Hubbard
source
Other Challenger

Clayton, David

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 19.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.6 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NC-10 Republican, competitive
NC-14 Republican, toss-up
NC-6 Republican, toss-up
NC-12 Democrat, safe seat
NC-11 Democrat, toss-up
NC-9 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026