Riding profile

NC-5

US House district — NC · Mixed · us nc

The question

NC-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NC-5, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FOXX, VIRGINIA ANN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Foxx, Virginia Ann

  • Democrat Challenger

    Creekmore, Kyah

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hubbard, Chuck

  • Other Challenger

    Clayton, David

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.1%
  • Democrat 43.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNC-5 56.1%43.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +9.4 51.9% −7.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
19.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026