Winner
Richard N. Ojeda II 41.8%
Riding profile
NC-9
The question
NC-9: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.6
- P(close race)
- 58%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNC-9 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +7.4 | 54.3% −6.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
NC-9, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
HUDSON, RICHARD L. JR.
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Ojeda, Richard N.
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026