Winner
Colby Watson 47.9%
Riding profile
NC-8
The question
NC-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.4
- P(close race)
- 4%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNC-8 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +9.3 | 54.3% −8.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
NC-8, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
HARRIS, MARK E
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Watson, Colby
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026