Riding profile

NC-8

US House district — NC · Mixed · us nc

The question

NC-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NC-8, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HARRIS, MARK E

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Harris, Mark E

  • Democrat Challenger

    Oppenheim, Jesse

  • Democrat Challenger

    Watson, Colby

  • Republican Challenger

    Harris, Mark E

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.9%
  • Democrat 43.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNC-8 56.9%43.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.2 51.9% −8.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
19.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026