North Carolina’s 8th District

U.S. House · NC-8

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 28%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 54.2%

Mark Harris, incumbent
Democrat 45.8%

Colby Watson

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 71% chance (86% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	86%
Orbit	Republican	71%
50/50 blend	Republican	78%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
NC-8	54.2%	45.8%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+10.3	54.9%−9.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	5.4% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Mark Harris · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Colby Watson	47.9%	18,272 votes
Republican primary	Mark Harris	0.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Mark Harris
source
Democrat Challenger

Colby Watson
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 19.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.8 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NC-12 Democrat, safe seat
NC-9 Republican, competitive
NC-6 Republican, toss-up
NC-10 Republican, competitive
NC-4 Democrat, safe seat
NC-7 Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026