North Carolina’s 7th District

U.S. House · NC-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 79% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 35%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 53.2%

David Rouzer, incumbent
Democrat 46.9%

Kim Hardy

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 55% chance (79% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	79%
Orbit	Republican	55%
50/50 blend	Republican	67%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
NC-7	53.2%	46.9%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+9.3	54.9%−8.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll, 3 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling Scenario 1	19–Aug 20, 2026	517	registered voters	Generic Republican (R) 48 Generic Democrat (D) 43	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 2	19–Aug 20, 2026	517	registered voters	David Rouzer (R) 45 Kimberly Hardy (D) 39 Maad Abu-Ghazalah (Lib.) 3	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 3	19–Aug 20, 2026	517	registered voters	David Rouzer (R) 49 Kimberly Hardy (D) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.9% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

David Rouzer · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Kim Hardy	0.0%
Republican primary	David Rouzer	80.5%	43,577 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

David Rouzer
source
Democrat Challenger

Kim Hardy
source
Other Challenger

Abu-Ghazalah, Maad

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 17.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.4 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NC-3 Republican, toss-up
NC-2 Democrat, safe seat
NC-13 Republican, toss-up
NC-4 Democrat, safe seat
NC-8 Republican, competitive
NC-9 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026