Riding profile

NC-7

US House district — NC · Mixed · us nc

The question

NC-7: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NC-7, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ROUZER, DAVID

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Rouzer, David

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hardy, Kimberly Dr.

  • Other Challenger

    Abu-Ghazalah, Maad

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.0
P(close race)
10%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.0%
  • Democrat 46.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNC-7 54.0%46.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +7.3 51.9% −5.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
17.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026