North Carolina’s 3rd District
U.S. House · NC-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 63% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 56% chance (63% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 63% |
| Orbit | Republican | 56% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 59% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| NC-3 | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+7.4 | 54.9%−6.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Greg Murphy · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Raymond Smith | 56.7% | 23,552 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Greg Murphy | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 38.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.9 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 3 69%
- Former district 1 31%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated