Winner
Raymond Smith 56.7%
Riding profile
NC-3
The question
NC-3: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.9
- P(close race)
- 90%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNC-3 | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +6.5 | 54.3% −5.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research House Majority PAC | Jul 27 – Aug 2 | — | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NC-3, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
MURPHY, GREGORY FRANCIS DR.
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Smith, Raymond Edward Dr. Jr.
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 3
(37003)69% - Congressional District 1
(37001)31%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026