Riding profile

NC-3

US House district — NC · Mixed · us nc

The question

NC-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NC-3, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MURPHY, GREGORY FRANCIS DR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Murphy, Gregory Francis Dr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Jaslow, Allison

  • Democrat Challenger

    Schulte, Chris

  • Democrat Challenger

    Smith, Raymond Edward Dr. Jr.

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.1
P(close race)
9%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.0%
  • Democrat 46.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNC-3 54.0%46.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +7.4 51.9% −5.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-30.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 3 (37003) 69%
  • Congressional District 1 (37001) 31%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026