Riding profile

NC-2

US House district — NC · Mixed · us nc

The question

NC-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NC-2, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ROSS, DEBORAH

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Ross, Deborah

  • Other Challenger

    Mcginnis, Brian

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 69.6%
  • Republican 30.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereNC-2 69.6%30.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +17.7 46.6% −16.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
34.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026