Riding profile

NC-10

US House district — NC · Mixed · us nc

The question

NC-10: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NC-10, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HARRIGAN, PAT

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Harrigan, Pat

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bell, Ashley

  • Democrat Challenger

    Caudle, West

  • Democrat Challenger

    Morley, Harry Clare Mr Jr

  • Democrat Challenger

    Yarfitz, Mir

  • Republican Challenger

    Sin, Matthew

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.8%
  • Democrat 43.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNC-10 56.8%43.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.2 51.9% −8.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 10–Mar 12 400 LV
Republican 52 Democrat 37
link
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 10–Mar 12 400 LV
Republican 51 Democrat 38
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
19.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026