North Carolina’s 10th District

U.S. House · NC-10

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 89% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 24%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 54.9%

Pat Harrigan, incumbent
Democrat 45.2%

Ashley Bell

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 67% chance (89% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	89%
Orbit	Republican	67%
50/50 blend	Republican	78%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
NC-10	54.9%	45.2%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+11.0	54.9%−9.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll, 2 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 1	10–Mar 12, 2026	400	likely voters	Pat Harrigan (R) 52 Ashley Bell (D) 37	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 2	10–Mar 12, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 51 Generic Democrat (D) 38	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.1% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Pat Harrigan · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Ashley Bell	47.3%	19,472 votes
Republican primary	Pat Harrigan	87.7%	46,270 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Pat Harrigan
source
Democrat Challenger

Ashley Bell
source
Other Challenger

Feldman, Steven

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 19.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.7 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NC-6 Republican, toss-up
NC-5 Republican, competitive
NC-12 Democrat, safe seat
NC-14 Republican, toss-up
NC-9 Republican, competitive
NC-8 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026