Winner
Ashley Bell 47.3%
Riding profile
NC-10
The question
NC-10: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.9
- P(close race)
- 17%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNC-10 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +8.5 | 54.3% −7.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
2 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 10–Mar 12 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 10–Mar 12 | 400 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NC-10, a mixed riding in NC, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
HARRIGAN, PAT
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Pat Harrigan 87.7%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Harrigan, Pat
-
Democrat Challenger Bell, Ashley
- Other Challenger
Feldman, Steven
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026