Riding profile

MT-2

US House district — MT · Mixed · us mt

The question

MT-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 60.6%
  • Democrat 39.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMT-2 60.6%39.4%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +15.7 54.3% −14.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MT-2, a mixed riding in MT, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DOWNING, TROY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Eisenhauer, Michael D. Dr.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026