Montana’s 2nd District

U.S. House · MT-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 57.2%

Troy Downing, incumbent
Democrat 36.3%

Brian Miller
Other 6.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 93% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	> 99%
Orbit	Republican	93%
50/50 blend	Republican	96%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
MT-2	57.2%	36.3%	6.6%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+13.3	54.9%−18.6	1.2%+5.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Montana State University Billings	5–Oct 21, 2026	350	adults	Republican 29 Democrat 18 Independent and others 15	See the poll
Rutgers-Eagleton Montana Free Press	Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 7, 2026	—	registered voters	Troy Downing (R) 48 Brian Miller (D) 26 Michael Eisenhauer (Ind.) 9 Patrick McCracken (Lib.) 5	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.5% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Troy Downing · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Brian Miller	55.7%	24,033 votes
Republican primary	Troy Downing	100.0%	82,088 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Troy Downing
source
Democrat Challenger

Brian Miller
source
Other Challenger

Eisenhauer, Michael D. Dr.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 32.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 20.9 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

MT-1 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026