Riding profile

MT-2

US House district — MT · Mixed · us mt

The question

MT-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MT-2, a mixed riding in MT, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 63% vote share, against 37% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DOWNING, TROY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Downing, Troy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lux, Sam

  • Democrat Challenger

    Miller, Brian James

  • Other Challenger

    Eisenhauer, Michael D. Dr.

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 63.2%
  • Democrat 36.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMT-2 63.2%36.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +16.6 51.9% −15.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026