Riding profile

MT-1

US House district — MT · Mixed · us mt

The question

MT-1: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
93%
Mean margin (pts)
1.9
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.5%
  • Republican 48.7%
  • Other 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMT-1 50.5%48.7%0.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −3.8 44.9% +3.7 5.1% −4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

9 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling The Bench 9–Sep 10 536 RV
Democrat 45 Republican 43
link
Public Policy Polling The Bench 9–Sep 10 536 RV
Republican 48 Democrat 44
link
Rutgers-Eagleton Montana Free Press Aug 27 – Sep 7 375 RV
Republican 42 Democrat 41
link
Impact Research 22–Jun 25 500 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 44
link
Upswing Research 314 Action Apr 30 – May 5 401 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 43
link
Upswing Research 314 Action Apr 30 – May 5 401 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 43
link
Peak Insights Leadership in Action 12–Jan 15 400 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 38
link
Peak Insights Leadership in Action 12–Jan 15 400 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 41
link
Tulchin Research No Surrender Fund 22–Nov 25 424 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 43
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

MT-1, a mixed riding in MT, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

ZINKE, RYAN K

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Zinke, Ryan K

  • Democrat Open seat

    Busse, Ryan

  • Democrat Open seat

    Cleveland, Russell Tyler

  • Democrat Open seat

    Forstag, Samuel Kelley

  • Democrat Open seat

    Rains, Matthew

  • Republican Open seat

    Flint, Aaron

  • Republican Open seat

    Jacobsen, Christi

  • Republican Open seat

    Olszewski, Albert

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
7.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026