Montana’s 1st District

U.S. House · MT-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 56% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 51%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.1%

Sam Forstag
Republican 49.1%

Aaron Flint
Other 0.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 61% chance (56% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	56%
Orbit	Democrat	61%
50/50 blend	Democrat	58%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
MT-1	50.1%	49.1%	0.8%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−4.8	43.9%+5.2	1.2%−0.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

11 polls, 15 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Montana State University Billings	5–Oct 21, 2026	287	adults	Democrat 49 Republican 32	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	12–Oct 14, 2026	—	likely voters	Sam Forstag (D) 48 Aaron Flint (R) 45	See the poll
Emerson College Poll Vault	12–Oct 14, 2026	329	likely voters	Sam Forstag (D) 50 Aaron Flint (R) 46	See the poll
American Pulse Research & Polling NonStop Local Scenario 1	19–Sep 24, 2026	314	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 46 Generic Democrat (D) 37 Generic Candidate (OTH) 10	See the poll
American Pulse Research & Polling NonStop Local Scenario 2	19–Sep 24, 2026	314	likely voters	Aaron Flint (R) 46 Sam Forstag (D) 45 Nick Sheedy (Lib.) 5	See the poll
Impact Research	20–Sep 23, 2026	500	likely voters	Sam Forstag (D) 47 Aaron Flint (R) 44 Nick Sheedy (Lib.) 2	See the poll
Public Policy Polling The Bench Scenario 1	9–Sep 10, 2026	536	registered voters	Sam Forstag (D) 45 Aaron Flint (R) 43	See the poll
Public Policy Polling The Bench Scenario 2	9–Sep 10, 2026	536	registered voters	Generic Republican (R) 48 Generic Democrat (D) 44	See the poll
Rutgers-Eagleton Montana Free Press	Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 7, 2026	375	registered voters	Aaron Flint (R) 42 Sam Forstag (D) 41 Nick Sheedy (Lib.) 5	See the poll
Impact Research	22–Jun 25, 2026	500	likely voters	Aaron Flint (R) 44 Sam Forstag (D) 44 Tim Sheehy (R) 5	See the poll
Upswing Research 314 Action Scenario 1	Apr 30, 2026 – May 5, 2026	401	likely voters	Aaron Flint (R) 47 Matt Rains (D) 43	See the poll
Upswing Research 314 Action Scenario 2	Apr 30, 2026 – May 5, 2026	401	likely voters	Aaron Flint (R) 48 Sam Forstag (D) 43	See the poll
Peak Insights Leadership in Action Scenario 1	12–Jan 15, 2026	400	likely voters	Ryan Zinke (R) 48 Sam Forstag (D) 38	See the poll
Peak Insights Leadership in Action Scenario 2	12–Jan 15, 2026	400	likely voters	Ryan Zinke (R) 47 Ryan Busse (D) 41	See the poll
Tulchin Research No Surrender Fund	22–Nov 25, 2025	424	likely voters	Ryan Busse (D) 47 Ryan Zinke (R) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.5% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Zinke, Ryan K · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Sam Forstag	37.3%	26,276 votes
Republican primary	Aaron Flint	50.1%	41,170 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Sam Forstag
source
Republican Open seat

Aaron Flint
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 7.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 5.9 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

MT-2 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026