Winner
Glenn F. Ivey 79.2%
Riding profile
MD-4
The question
MD-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 87.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereMD-4 | 93.6% | 6.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +39.3 | 44.9% −38.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
MD-4, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 77-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 94% vote share, against 6% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 23, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
George E. McDermott 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Challenger
Ivey, Glenn Frederick
-
Republican Open seat George E. McDermott
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026