Riding profile

MD-4

US House district — MD · Mixed · us md

The question

MD-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MD-4, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 77-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 91% vote share, against 9% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hedgepeth, Shavonne

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ivey, Glenn Frederick

  • Democrat Challenger

    Johnson, Jakeya

  • Democrat Challenger

    White, Jonathan

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
81.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 90.7%
  • Republican 9.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereMD-4 90.7%9.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +38.8 46.6% −37.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
77.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026