Maryland’s 2nd District
U.S. House · MD-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD-2 | 65.3% | 34.6% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+10.4 | 43.9%−9.3 | 1.2%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.2% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Jr. John "Johnny O" Olszewski · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | John "Johnny O" Olszewski, Jr. | 84.5% | 65,646 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Dave Wallace | 88.9% | 27,136 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 18.6 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 30.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated