Winner
John "Johnny O" Olszewski, Jr. 84.5%
Riding profile
MD-2
The question
MD-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 30.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMD-2 | 65.0% | 34.5% | 0.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +10.6 | 44.9% −10.5 | 5.1% −4.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
MD-2, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 34% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
OLSZEWSKI, JOHN ANTHONY JR.
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 23, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Dave Wallace 88.9%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Olszewski, John Anthony Jr.
-
Republican Challenger Wallace, David Drain II
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026