Maryland’s 6th District
U.S. House · MD-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 90% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 90% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 95% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| MD-6 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+4.4 | 43.9%−3.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 8.7% (± 0.4) |
|---|
Current member
April McClain Delaney · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | April McClain Delaney | 44.0% | 27,819 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Robin Ficker | 41.8% | 16,284 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 6.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 18.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated