Riding profile

MD-5

US House district — MD · Mixed · us md

The question

MD-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MD-5, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HOYER, STENY

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Adrian Boafo 17%

6 candidates polled · Latest poll May 28, 2026 · byclarity_campaign_labs

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Hoyer, Steny

  • Democrat Open seat

    Baker, Rushern L III

  • Democrat Open seat

    Bareebe, Quincy

  • Democrat Open seat

    Blegay, Wala

  • Democrat Open seat

    Boafo, Adrian

  • Democrat Open seat

    Collins, Reuben Burton II

  • Democrat Open seat

    Dunn, Harry

  • Democrat Open seat

    Ellis, Arthur Carr

  • Democrat Open seat

    Jackson, Terry Antonio Mr. II

  • Democrat Open seat

    Jarin, Harry

  • Democrat Open seat

    Kirkland, Walter

  • Democrat Open seat

    Luper, Heather Marie

  • Democrat Open seat

    Messick, Leigha Michele

  • Democrat Open seat

    Simons, Kenneth

  • Democrat Open seat

    Solis, Alexis

  • Democrat Open seat

    Starr, Tracy

  • Democrat Open seat

    Sundberg, David

  • Democrat Open seat

    Williams, Nicole

  • Republican Open seat

    Talkington, Michelle

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 70.0%
  • Republican 30.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereMD-5 70.0%30.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +18.1 46.6% −16.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
35.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026