Winner
Adrian Boafo 32.7%
Riding profile
MD-5
The question
MD-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 45.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereMD-5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +18.5 | 44.9% −17.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
MD-5, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 27% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
HOYER, STENY
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 23, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Chris Chaffee 51.2%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Open seat
Boafo, Adrian
-
Republican Open seat Chris Chaffee
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026