Riding profile

MD-8

US House district — MD · Mixed · us md

The question

MD-8: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MD-8, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 56-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 81% vote share, against 19% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RASKIN, JAMIE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Raskin, Jamie

  • Republican Challenger

    Mpambara Cox, K. Anita

  • Republican Challenger

    Riley, Cheryl

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
62.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 81.0%
  • Republican 18.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMD-8 81.0%18.7%0.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +29.2 46.6% −28.0 5.4% −5.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
56.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026