Riding profile

MD-3

US House district — MD · Mixed · us md

The question

MD-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MD-3, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ELFRETH, SARAH KELLY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Elfreth, Sarah Kelly

  • Republican Challenger

    Flowers, Bernard

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 63.7%
  • Republican 35.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMD-3 63.7%35.9%0.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +11.8 46.6% −10.7 5.4% −5.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
21.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026