Riding profile

MD-3

US House district — MD · Mixed · us md

The question

MD-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 66.1%

    Sarah Kelly Elfreth incumbent

  • Republican 32.8%

    Bernard Flowers

  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMD-3 66.1%32.8%1.1%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +11.8 44.9% −12.1 5.1% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MD-3, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 66% vote share, against 33% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ELFRETH, SARAH KELLY

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 23, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Sarah Elfreth 74.7%

55,784 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Berney Flowers 48.9%

10,428 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Elfreth, Sarah Kelly

  • Republican Challenger

    Flowers, Bernard

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
21.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026