Riding profile

MD-7

US House district — MD · Mixed · us md

The question

MD-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
74.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 86.9%

    Kweisi Mfume incumbent

  • Republican 12.3%

    Scott M. Collier

  • Other 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMD-7 86.9%12.3%0.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +32.5 44.9% −32.6 5.1% −4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MD-7, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 63-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 87% vote share, against 12% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MFUME, KWEISI

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 23, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Kweisi Mfume 70.1%

57,793 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Scott M. Collier 100.0%

5,749 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mfume, Kweisi

  • Republican Open seat

    Scott M. Collier

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
63.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026