Riding profile

MD-7

US House district — MD · Mixed · us md

The question

MD-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MD-7, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 63-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 84% vote share, against 15% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MFUME, KWEISI

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mfume, Kweisi

  • Democrat Challenger

    Conway, Mark Steven Mr. Jr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
69.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 84.5%
  • Republican 15.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMD-7 84.5%15.4%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +32.6 46.6% −31.3 5.4% −5.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
63.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026