Winner
Dan Schwartz 46.3%
Riding profile
MD-1
The question
MD-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMD-1 | 55.5% | 43.3% | 1.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +10.6 | 54.3% −11.0 | 5.1% −3.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z To A Research | 23–Jul 27 | 482 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
MD-1, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
HARRIS, ANDREW P
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 23, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Andy Harris 79.7%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Harris, Andrew P
-
Democrat Challenger Schwartz, Daniel
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026