Riding profile

MD-1

US House district — MD · Mixed · us md

The question

MD-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MD-1, a mixed riding in MD, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HARRIS, ANDREW P

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Harris, Andrew P

  • Democrat Challenger

    Schwartz, Daniel

  • Democrat Challenger

    White, Randi

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.2%
  • Democrat 41.0%
  • Other 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMD-1 58.2%41.0%0.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.6 51.9% −10.9 5.4% −4.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
22.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026