Maryland’s 1st District
U.S. House · MD-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 16%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 78% chance (95% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 95% |
| Orbit | Republican | 78% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 86% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD-1 | 55.5% | 43.8% | 0.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.6 | 54.9%−11.1 | 1.2%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.7% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Andy Harris · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Dan Schwartz | 46.3% | 19,821 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Andy Harris | 79.7% | 54,122 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 22.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.2 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated