Riding profile

LA-3

US House district — LA · Mixed · us la

The question

LA-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

LA-3, a mixed riding in LA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HIGGINS, CLAY CAPTAIN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Higgins, Clay Captain

  • Democrat Challenger

    Day, John David

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lebrun, Tia Marie Mrs.

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 65.2%
  • Democrat 34.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereLA-3 65.2%34.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +18.5 51.9% −17.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
48.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-18.0 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 3 (22003) 94%
  • Congressional District 6 (22006) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026