Riding profile
LA-3
The question
LA-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 25.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereLA-3 | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +17.6 | 54.3% −16.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
LA-3, a mixed riding in LA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 63% vote share, against 37% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
HIGGINS, CLAY CAPTAIN
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Higgins, Clay Captain
-
Democrat Challenger Day, John David
- Other Challenger
Lebrun, Tia Marie Mrs.
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 3
(22003)94% - Congressional District 6
(22006)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026