Riding profile

LA-1

US House district — LA · Mixed · us la

The question

LA-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

LA-1, a mixed riding in LA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 50-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 66% vote share, against 34% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SCALISE, STEVE MR

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Scalise, Steve Mr

  • Democrat Challenger

    Jewett, Lauren

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 66.1%
  • Democrat 33.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereLA-1 66.1%33.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +19.5 51.9% −18.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
50.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 1 (22001) 86%
  • Congressional District 3 (22003) 13%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026