Blake Miguez 23%
Riding profile
LA-5
The question
LA-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Editorial read
LA-5, a mixed riding in LA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 59-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
LETLOW, JULIA
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Who leads in the primary
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Letlow, Julia
-
Democrat Open seat Garcia, Lindsay
- Democrat Open seat
Mckay, Dan
- Democrat Open seat
Nyman, Tania
- Republican Open seat
Cordell, Misti Smith
- Republican Open seat
Echols, Michael Charles
- Republican Open seat
Magee, Austin
- Republican Open seat
Mcmakin, Dixon
- Republican Open seat
Mebruer, Michael Edward
- Republican Open seat
Miguez, Blake
- Republican Open seat
Wyatt, Samuel Lee Mr.
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 27.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereLA-5 | 63.8% | 36.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +17.1 | 51.9% −15.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 5
(22005)66% - Congressional District 4
(22004)25% - Congressional District 6
(22006)10%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026