Blake Miguez 23%
Louisiana’s 5th District
U.S. House · LA-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 95% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| LA-5 | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+21.6 | 54.9%−20.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Letlow, Julia · Republican
Who leads in the primary
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Letlow, Julia
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Democrat Open seat Foy, Larry W
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Open seat
Mckay, Dan
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Open seat
Moore, Patricia Ann
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Open seat
Nyman, Tania
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Open seat
Wilson, Antonio
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Open seat
Cathey, Stewart Jr.
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Open seat
Cordell, Misti Smith
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Open seat
Echols, Michael Charles
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Open seat
Firment, Michael Gabriel
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Open seat
Magee, Austin
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Open seat
Mcmakin, Dixon
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Open seat
Wyatt, Samuel Lee Mr.
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 58.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 31.0 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 5 66%
- Former district 4 25%
- Former district 6 10%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated