Blake Miguez 23%
Riding profile
LA-5
The question
LA-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 22.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereLA-5 | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +16.2 | 54.3% −15.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
LA-5, a mixed riding in LA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 59-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
LETLOW, JULIA
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Who leads in the primary
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Letlow, Julia
-
Democrat Open seat Mckay, Dan
- Democrat Open seat
Nyman, Tania
- Republican Open seat
Cathey, Stewart Jr.
- Republican Open seat
Cordell, Misti Smith
- Republican Open seat
Echols, Michael Charles
- Republican Open seat
Firment, Michael Gabriel
- Republican Open seat
Magee, Austin
- Republican Open seat
Mcmakin, Dixon
- Republican Open seat
Wyatt, Samuel Lee Mr.
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 5
(22005)66% - Congressional District 4
(22004)25% - Congressional District 6
(22006)10%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026