Riding profile

LA-2

US House district — LA · Mixed · us la

The question

LA-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

LA-2, a mixed riding in LA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 76% vote share, against 24% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CARTER, TROY A. SR.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Carter, Troy A. Sr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 75.7%
  • Republican 24.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereLA-2 75.7%24.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +23.8 46.6% −22.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
41.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 2 (22002) 87%
  • Congressional District 6 (22006) 7%
  • Congressional District 1 (22001) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026