Louisiana’s 2nd District
U.S. House · LA-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 67.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| LA-2 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+28.8 | 43.9%−27.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Carter, Troy A. Sr. · Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Carter, Troy A. Sr.
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Other Challenger
Ballay, Lisa
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 41.1 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 67.4 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 2 87%
- Former district 6 7%
- Former district 1 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated