Riding profile

LA-4

US House district — LA · Mixed · us la

The question

LA-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

LA-4, a mixed riding in LA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 89-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JOHNSON, JAMES MICHAEL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Johnson, James Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cable, Conrad Roberts

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gromlich, Matthew

  • Republican Challenger

    Nichols, Michael

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 64.0%
  • Democrat 36.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereLA-4 64.0%36.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +17.4 51.9% −15.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
88.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-60.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 4 (22004) 85%
  • Congressional District 6 (22006) 15%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026