Riding profile
LA-4
The question
LA-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 22.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereLA-4 | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +16.5 | 54.3% −15.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
LA-4, a mixed riding in LA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 89-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
JOHNSON, JAMES MICHAEL
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Johnson, James Michael
-
Democrat Challenger Cable, Conrad Roberts
- Democrat Challenger
Gromlich, Matthew
- Republican Challenger
Nichols, Michael
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 4
(22004)85% - Congressional District 6
(22006)15%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026