Louisiana’s 4th District
U.S. House · LA-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 95% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| LA-4 | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+17.3 | 54.9%−16.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Johnson, James Michael · Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Johnson, James Michael
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Democrat Challenger Cable, Conrad Roberts
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Gromlich, Matthew
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Heslop, Gordon Brian
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Nichols, Michael
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 88.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 22.5 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 4 85%
- Former district 6 15%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated