Riding profile

CA-46

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-46: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-46, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CORREA, LOU

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Correa, Lou

  • Republican Challenger

    Pan, David

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.8%
  • Republican 39.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-46 60.8%39.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +9.0 46.6% −7.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
23.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 46 (06046) 84%
  • Congressional District 40 (06040) 9%
  • Congressional District 45 (06045) 7%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026