California’s 45th District
U.S. House · CA-45
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 87% chance (97% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 97% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 87% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 92% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-45 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+2.7 | 43.9%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Derek Tran · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Derek Tran · Advanced to the general election | 53.8% | 86,184 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Chuong V. Vo · Advanced to the general election | 15.3% | 24,591 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 3.4 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 15.5 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 45 81%
- Former district 47 7%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated