Riding profile

CA-45

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-45: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-45, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TRAN, DEREK

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Tran, Derek

  • Republican Challenger

    Ky-Phong Vo, Thomas

  • Republican Challenger

    Leonard, Mark Andrew

  • Republican Challenger

    Nguyen, Chi Charlie

  • Republican Challenger

    Phan West, Amy

  • Republican Challenger

    Steel, Michelle

  • Republican Challenger

    Vo, Chuong

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 54.8%
  • Republican 45.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-45 54.8%45.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +2.9 46.6% −1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
3.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.2 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 45 (06045) 81%
  • Congressional District 47 (06047) 7%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026