Riding profile
CA-43
The question
CA-43: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Editorial read
CA-43, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 50-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 78% vote share, against 22% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
WATERS, MAXINE MS
Sits with Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Waters, Maxine Ms
- Democrat Challenger
Rahman, Myla
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 55.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-43 | 77.7% | 22.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 51.9% +25.8 | 46.6% −24.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026