Riding profile

CA-34

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-34: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-34, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 95-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 79% vote share, against 21% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GOMEZ, JIMMY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Gomez, Jimmy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Dixon, Arthur

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gonzales-Torres, Angela

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lucero, Rob

  • Other Challenger

    Colin, Loren

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
57.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 78.8%
  • Republican 21.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-34 78.8%21.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +27.0 46.6% −25.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
95.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-37.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 34 (06034) 92%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026