Advanced to the general election
Jimmy Gomez 46.0%
Advanced to the general election
Angela Gonzales-Torres 30.7%
Riding profile
CA-34
The question
CA-34: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 63.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-34 | 81.7% | 18.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +27.4 | 44.9% −26.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upswing Research Guardrails Alliance | 1–Sep 5 | 403 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
CA-34, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 95-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 82% vote share, against 18% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
GOMEZ, JIMMY
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Gomez, Jimmy
- Democrat Challenger
Gonzales-Torres, Angela
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 34
(06034)92%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026