Riding profile
CA-30
The question
CA-30: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Editorial read
CA-30, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 27% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
FRIEDMAN, LAURA
Sits with Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Friedman, Laura
- Democrat Challenger
Herman, Lester
- Democrat Challenger
Lava, Joel Mr.
- Democrat Challenger
Melvoin, Nick
- Democrat Challenger
Tennyson, Cameron
- Other Challenger
John Armenian
-
Republican Challenger Feitosa, Dennis F.
- Republican Challenger
Meyers, Scott Alan
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 45.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-30 | 73.0% | 27.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 51.9% +21.1 | 46.6% −19.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 27
(06027)43% - Congressional District 30
(06030)42% - Congressional District 29
(06029)14%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026