Advanced to the general election
Laura Friedman 52.7%
Advanced to the general election
Scott Alan Meyers 16.6%
Riding profile
CA-30
The question
CA-30: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 51.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-30 | 75.8% | 24.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +21.5 | 44.9% −20.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-30, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 76% vote share, against 24% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
FRIEDMAN, LAURA
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Friedman, Laura
-
Republican Challenger Meyers, Scott Alan
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 27
(06027)43% - Congressional District 30
(06030)42% - Congressional District 29
(06029)14%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026