California’s 27th District
U.S. House · CA-27
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 94% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 94% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 96% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-27 | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+5.5 | 43.9%−4.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 37.8% (± 0.8) |
|---|
Current member
George Whitesides · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Jason Gibbs · Advanced to the general election | 41.0% | 62,758 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | George Whitesides · Advanced to the general election | 40.6% | 62,214 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 3.4 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 20.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated