California’s 26th District
U.S. House · CA-26
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 97% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 97% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-26 | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+8.3 | 43.9%−7.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Brownley, Julia · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Jacqui Irwin · Advanced to the general election | 41.3% | 79,790 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Sam Gallucci · Advanced to the general election | 20.9% | 40,334 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 10.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 26.4 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 26 75%
- Former district 27 23%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated