Riding profile

CA-26

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-26: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-26, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BROWNLEY, JULIA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Brownley, Julia

  • Democrat Open seat

    Devgan-Kacker, Sonia Dr

  • Democrat Open seat

    Espinosa, Chris

  • Democrat Open seat

    Irwin, Jacqui V

  • Republican Open seat

    Gallucci, Samuel

  • Republican Open seat

    Koslow, Michael S

  • Republican Open seat

    Scott, William

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.4%
  • Republican 39.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-26 60.4%39.6%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +8.5 46.6% −7.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
10.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 26 (06026) 75%
  • Congressional District 27 (06027) 23%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026