Advanced to the general election
Sydney Kamlager-Dove 55.2%
Advanced to the general election
Samantha Mota 11.7%
Riding profile
CA-37
The question
CA-37: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 71.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-37 | 86.0% | 14.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +31.6 | 44.9% −30.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-37, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 57-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 86% vote share, against 14% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
KAMLAGER-DOVE, SYDNEY
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Kamlager-Dove, Sydney
- Democrat Challenger
Mota, Samantha
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026