Riding profile

CA-36

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-36: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-36, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 72% vote share, against 28% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LIEU, TED

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Lieu, Ted

  • Democrat Challenger

    Knudtson, Rustin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Shamma, Marianne

  • Other Challenger

    Ragge Anderson, Claire

  • Republican Challenger

    Brignano, Houston

  • Republican Challenger

    Toomim, Leah Melissa

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
44.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 72.5%
  • Republican 27.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-36 72.5%27.6%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +20.6 46.6% −19.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
37.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026