Riding profile

CA-44

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-44: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-44, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 71% vote share, against 29% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BARRAGAN, NANETTE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Barragan, Nanette

  • Republican Challenger

    Angel, Genevieve

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
41.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 70.7%
  • Republican 29.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-44 70.7%29.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +18.8 46.6% −17.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
42.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.8 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 44 (06044) 86%
  • Congressional District 42 (06042) 12%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026