Riding profile

CA-41

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-41: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-41, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SANCHEZ, LINDA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Sanchez, Linda

  • Democrat Challenger

    Aleman, Katherine

  • Democrat Challenger

    Byors, Jason

  • Democrat Challenger

    De La Torre, Hector

  • Democrat Challenger

    Myers, Tim

  • Democrat Challenger

    Williams, Shonique

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.1%
  • Republican 39.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-41 60.1%39.9%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +8.2 46.6% −6.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
22.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 38 (06038) 54%
  • Congressional District 42 (06042) 24%
  • Congressional District 45 (06045) 13%
  • Congressional District 44 (06044) 8%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026