Advanced to the general election
Hilda Solis 47.6%
Advanced to the general election
Pedro Antonio Casas 35.8%
Riding profile
CA-38
The question
CA-38: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-38 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +7.3 | 44.9% −6.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-38, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Challenger
Solis, Hilda
-
Republican Open seat Pedro Antonio Casas
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 38
(06038)44% - Congressional District 40
(06040)26% - Congressional District 31
(06031)20% - Congressional District 42
(06042)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026