Riding profile

CA-38

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-38: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-38, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Adams-Falconer, Thomas Michael Jr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sanchez, Monica Dr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Solis, Hilda

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.8%
  • Republican 41.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-38 58.8%41.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +6.9 46.6% −5.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
18.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.6 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 38 (06038) 44%
  • Congressional District 40 (06040) 26%
  • Congressional District 31 (06031) 20%
  • Congressional District 42 (06042) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026