California’s 38th District
U.S. House · CA-38
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 96% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 96% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 98% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-38 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+6.7 | 43.9%−5.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Hilda Solis · Advanced to the general election | 47.6% | 65,369 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Pedro Antonio Casas · Advanced to the general election | 35.8% | 49,196 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 18.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 23.3 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 38 44%
- Former district 40 26%
- Former district 31 20%
- Former district 42 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated