Riding profile

CA-35

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-35: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-35, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TORRES, NORMA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Torres, Norma

  • Republican Challenger

    Cargile, Mike

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 56.7%
  • Republican 43.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-35 56.7%43.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +4.8 46.6% −3.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
14.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.2 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 35 (06035) 57%
  • Congressional District 40 (06040) 19%
  • Congressional District 41 (06041) 15%
  • Congressional District 28 (06028) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026