California’s 39th District
U.S. House · CA-39
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 93% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 93% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-39 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+7.4 | 43.9%−6.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 55.9% (± 0.9) |
|---|
Current member
Mark Takano · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Mark Takano · Advanced to the general election | 61.0% | 75,467 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Steve Manos · Advanced to the general election | 39.0% | 48,177 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 12.9 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 24.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated