Advanced to the general election
Pete Aguilar 53.5%
Advanced to the general election
Stephanie M. Vargas 17.5%
Riding profile
CA-33
The question
CA-33: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-33 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +6.3 | 44.9% −5.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-33, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
AGUILAR, PETE
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Aguilar, Pete
-
Republican Open seat Stephanie M. Vargas
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 33
(06033)78% - Congressional District 39
(06039)9% - Congressional District 23
(06023)8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026