Riding profile

CA-33

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-33: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-33, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

AGUILAR, PETE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Aguilar, Pete

  • Democrat Challenger

    Christodoulou, Antonis Panagiotis

  • Republican Challenger

    Richter, Ernest

  • Republican Challenger

    Weems, Eugene Lamonte

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.9%
  • Republican 42.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-33 57.9%42.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +6.0 46.6% −4.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
17.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.8 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 33 (06033) 78%
  • Congressional District 39 (06039) 9%
  • Congressional District 23 (06023) 8%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026