California’s 33rd District
U.S. House · CA-33
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 94% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 94% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-33 | 64.9% | 35.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+10.0 | 43.9%−8.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Pete Aguilar · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Pete Aguilar · Advanced to the general election | 53.5% | 64,068 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Stephanie M. Vargas · Advanced to the general election | 17.5% | 20,952 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 17.5 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 29.7 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 33 78%
- Former district 39 9%
- Former district 23 8%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated