Riding profile

CA-31

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-31: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-31, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cisneros, Gilbert

  • Republican Challenger

    Ching, Eric J

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.9%
  • Republican 41.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-31 58.9%41.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +7.1 46.6% −5.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
20.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 31 (06031) 60%
  • Congressional District 35 (06035) 20%
  • Congressional District 28 (06028) 14%
  • Congressional District 38 (06038) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026