Advanced to the general election
Judy Chu 62.2%
Advanced to the general election
April A. Verlato 32.1%
Riding profile
CA-28
The question
CA-28: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 36.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-28 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +13.8 | 44.9% −13.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-28, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 68% vote share, against 32% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
CHU, JUDY
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Chu, Judy
-
Republican Open seat April A. Verlato
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 28
(06028)88% - Congressional District 31
(06031)9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026