California’s 28th District
U.S. House · CA-28
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 38.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-28 | 69.3% | 30.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+14.4 | 43.9%−13.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Judy Chu · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Judy Chu · Advanced to the general election | 62.2% | 116,321 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | April A. Verlato · Advanced to the general election | 32.1% | 60,020 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 28.5 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 38.7 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 28 88%
- Former district 31 9%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated