Riding profile

CA-28

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-28: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-28, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CHU, JUDY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Chu, Judy

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 65.3%
  • Republican 34.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-28 65.3%34.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +13.4 46.6% −11.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
28.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.1 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 28 (06028) 88%
  • Congressional District 31 (06031) 9%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026