Riding profile

CA-40

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-40: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

CA-40, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

CALVERT, KEN

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Esther Kim-Varet 20%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll May 4, 2026 · bytulchin_research

Republican

Ken Calvert 24%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll May 4, 2026 · bytulchin_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Calvert, Ken

  • Republican Incumbent

    Kim, Young

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gagnier, Christina

  • Democrat Challenger

    Keissieh, Claude Manuel

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kerr, Joseph

  • Democrat Challenger

    Meade, Perry

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ramirez, Lisa D

  • Democrat Challenger

    Swift, Paula Williams Dr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Tate, Tiffanie Dr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Varet, Esther Kim

  • Other Challenger

    Linh, Nina

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
68%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.2%
  • Democrat 47.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereCA-40 52.2%47.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +5.5 51.9% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Tulchin Research 14–Jan 19 800 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 44
link
Tulchin Research 14–Jan 19 800 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 43
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
8.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 41 (06041) 46%
  • Congressional District 40 (06040) 31%
  • Congressional District 48 (06048) 21%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026