California’s 40th District

U.S. House · CA-40

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 56% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 46%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 50.6%
Democrat 49.4%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 52% chance (56% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	56%
Orbit	Republican	52%
50/50 blend	Republican	54%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
CA-40	50.6%	49.4%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+6.7	54.9%−5.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Grassroots Targeting California First Fund	5–Sep 9, 2026	715	likely voters	Young Kim (R) 43 Ken Calvert (R) 34	See the poll
Public Opinion Strategies	17–Aug 20, 2026	400	likely voters	Ken Calvert (R) 35 Young Kim (R) 34	See the poll
American Viewpoint California First Fund	8–Jul 12, 2026	—	likely voters	Ken Calvert (R) 33 Young Kim (R) 32	See the poll
Tulchin Research Scenario 1	14–Jan 19, 2026	800	likely voters	Ken Calvert (R) 44 Esther Kim-Varet (D) 44	See the poll
Tulchin Research Scenario 2	14–Jan 19, 2026	800	likely voters	Young Kim (R) 44 Esther Kim-Varet (D) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Ken Calvert · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Top-two primary	Ken Calvert · Advanced to the general election	34.9%	75,811 votes
Top-two primary	Young Kim · Advanced to the general election	20.6%	44,818 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Ken Calvert
source
Republican Incumbent

Young Kim
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 8.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.6 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 41 46%
Former district 40 31%
Former district 48 21%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

CA-39 Democrat, safe seat
CA-47 Democrat, safe seat
CA-35 Democrat, safe seat
CA-46 Democrat, safe seat
CA-49 Democrat, safe seat
CA-33 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026