Advanced to the general election
Ken Calvert 34.9%
Advanced to the general election
Young Kim 20.6%
Riding profile
CA-40
The question
CA-40: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 77%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.0
- P(close race)
- 96%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-40 | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +5.8 | 54.3% −5.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
4 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 17–Aug 20 | 400 | LV | link | |
| American Viewpoint California First Fund | 8–Jul 12 | — | LV | link | |
| Tulchin Research | 14–Jan 19 | 800 | LV | link | |
| Tulchin Research | 14–Jan 19 | 800 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
CA-40, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
CALVERT, KEN
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Calvert, Ken
- Republican Incumbent
Kim, Young
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 41
(06041)46% - Congressional District 40
(06040)31% - Congressional District 48
(06048)21%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026