Riding profile

CA-47

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-47: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-47, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MIN, DAVE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Min, Dave

  • Democrat Challenger

    Miranda, Hunter Garcia

  • Other Challenger

    Reid, Derrick Michael

  • Other Challenger

    Troutman, Eric J

  • Republican Challenger

    Brough, Bill

  • Republican Challenger

    Gonzales, Christopher J

  • Republican Challenger

    Le Roux, Jenny Rae

  • Republican Challenger

    Maxsenti, Michael

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.7%
  • Republican 42.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-47 57.7%42.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +5.8 46.6% −4.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
5.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 47 (06047) 55%
  • Congressional District 40 (06040) 25%
  • Congressional District 49 (06049) 19%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026