Advanced to the general election
Dave Min 45.4%
Advanced to the general election
Jenny Rae Le Roux 25.0%
Riding profile
CA-47
The question
CA-47: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereCA-47 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +6.1 | 44.9% −5.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
CA-47, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
MIN, DAVE
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Min, Dave
-
Republican Challenger Le Roux, Jenny Rae
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 47
(06047)55% - Congressional District 40
(06040)25% - Congressional District 49
(06049)19%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026