Riding profile

CA-32

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-32: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-32, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 66% vote share, against 34% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SHERMAN, BRAD

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Sherman, Brad

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ahuja, Christopher

  • Democrat Challenger

    Benami, Dory

  • Democrat Challenger

    Levine, Jake

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lin, Marena

  • Democrat Challenger

    Rakov, Jake

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sautter, Josh

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wilding, Anna

  • Republican Challenger

    Thompson, Larry

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 65.9%
  • Republican 34.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-32 65.9%34.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +14.1 46.6% −12.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
28.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 32 (06032) 81%
  • Congressional District 26 (06026) 15%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026