Riding profile

CA-42

US House district — CA · Mixed · us ca

The question

CA-42: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

CA-42, a mixed riding in CA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GARCIA, ROBERT

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Garcia, Robert

  • Other Challenger

    Vermeulen, Larisa

  • Republican Challenger

    Blom, Noah

  • Republican Challenger

    Burley, Brian J Mr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 59.3%
  • Republican 40.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereCA-42 59.3%40.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +7.4 46.6% −5.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
30.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 42 (06042) 80%
  • Congressional District 47 (06047) 18%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026