Ohio’s 6th District
U.S. House · OH-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 95% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| OH-6 | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+17.8 | 54.9%−16.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Michael Rulli · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Elizabeth Kirtley | 31.5% | 12,318 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Michael Rulli | 76.2% | 47,868 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 31.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 23.4 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 6 80%
- Former district 12 11%
- Former district 7 7%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated