Riding profile

OH-14

US House district — OH · Mixed · us oh

The question

OH-14: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

OH-14, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JOYCE, DAVID P.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Joyce, David P.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Jukic, Maria

  • Democrat Challenger

    Setzer, Carl

  • Republican Challenger

    Nicole, Frenchko Michele

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.3%
  • Democrat 42.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereOH-14 57.3%42.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.6 51.9% −9.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
27.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026