Riding profile

OH-14

US House district — OH · Mixed · us oh

The question

OH-14: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.2
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.6%
  • Democrat 45.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereOH-14 54.6%45.4%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +9.7 54.3% −8.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

OH-14, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JOYCE, DAVID P.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Joyce, David P.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Jukic, Maria

  • Democrat Challenger

    Setzer, Carl

  • Republican Challenger

    Nicole, Frenchko Michele

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
27.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026