Riding profile

OH-5

US House district — OH · Mixed · us oh

The question

OH-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

OH-5, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LATTA, ROBERT EDWARD

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Latta, Robert Edward

  • Democrat Challenger

    Burket, Daniel

  • Democrat Challenger

    Heberling, Martin Mathias Mr. III

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.9%
  • Democrat 41.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereOH-5 58.9%41.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +12.3 51.9% −10.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
31.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 5 (39005) 82%
  • Congressional District 9 (39009) 11%
  • Congressional District 4 (39004) 8%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026