Riding profile
OH-5
The question
OH-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereOH-5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +11.3 | 54.3% −10.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
OH-5, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
LATTA, ROBERT EDWARD
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Latta, Robert Edward
-
Democrat Challenger Burket, Daniel
- Democrat Challenger
Heberling, Martin Mathias Mr. III
- Democrat Challenger
Shaver, Brian Alan Mr.
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 5
(39005)82% - Congressional District 9
(39009)11% - Congressional District 4
(39004)8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026