Riding profile

OH-4

US House district — OH · Mixed · us oh

The question

OH-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

OH-4, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 68% vote share, against 32% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JORDAN, JAMES D.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Jordan, James D.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wilson, Tamara

  • Other Challenger

    Wilson, Tamara

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 68.4%
  • Democrat 31.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereOH-4 68.4%31.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +21.7 51.9% −20.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
34.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.0 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 4 (39004) 75%
  • Congressional District 5 (39005) 16%
  • Congressional District 15 (39015) 7%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026