Ohio’s 4th District
U.S. House · OH-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| OH-4 | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+22.0 | 54.9%−20.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jim Jordan · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Joshua Kolasinski | 100.0% | 26,406 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jim Jordan | 100.0% | 75,210 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 34.7 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 31.7 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 4 75%
- Former district 5 16%
- Former district 15 7%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated