Riding profile

OH-4

US House district — OH · Mixed · us oh

The question

OH-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 65.8%
  • Democrat 34.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereOH-4 65.8%34.2%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +20.8 54.3% −20.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

OH-4, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 66% vote share, against 34% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JORDAN, JAMES D.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Wilson, Tamara

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
34.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 4 (39004) 75%
  • Congressional District 5 (39005) 16%
  • Congressional District 15 (39015) 7%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026