Riding profile

OH-10

US House district — OH · Mixed · us oh

The question

OH-10: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
60%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.2%
  • Republican 49.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-15Republican62 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereOH-10 50.2%49.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −4.2 44.9% +4.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Global Strategy Group 20–Jul 23 700 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 40
link
Global Strategy Group 20–Jul 23 700 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 42
link
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC 6–Jul 12 — LV
Republican 48 Democrat 41
link
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC 6–Jul 12 — LV
Democrat 48 Republican 47
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

OH-10, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

TURNER, MICHAEL R REP.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Turner, Michael R Rep.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Beckett, Janice

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kinner, Jan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Knickerbocker, Kristina

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pombo, Tony

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
19.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.9 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 10 (39010) 92%
  • Congressional District 8 (39008) 8%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026