Ohio’s 10th District

U.S. House · OH-10

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 53.0%

Mike Turner, incumbent
Democrat 47.0%

Kristina Knickerbocker

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks a different favourite: the Democrat, with a 61% chance, while Harfang des neiges favours the Republican (77%).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	77%
Orbit	Democrat	61%
50/50 blend	Republican	58%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
OH-10	53.0%	47.0%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+9.1	54.9%−7.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Dccc Targeting Team	12–Oct 13, 2026	535	likely voters	Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 47 Mike Turner (R) 44 Thomas McMasters (Lib.) 4	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Scenario 1	20–Jul 23, 2026	700	likely voters	Mike Turner (R) 45 Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 40 Thomas McMasters (Lib.) 4	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Scenario 2	20–Jul 23, 2026	700	likely voters	Mike Turner (R) 49 Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 42	See the poll
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC Scenario 1	6–Jul 12, 2026	—	likely voters	Mike Turner (R) 48 Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 41	See the poll
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC Scenario 2	6–Jul 12, 2026	—	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 48 Generic Republican (R) 47	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Mike Turner · Republican

Primary results

Held May 5, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Kristina Knickerbocker	32.7%	14,824 votes
Republican primary	Mike Turner	100.0%	44,286 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Mike Turner
source
Democrat Challenger

Kristina Knickerbocker
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 19.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.3 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 10 92%
Former district 8 8%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

OH-1 Democrat, competitive
OH-8 Republican, toss-up
OH-15 Republican, toss-up
OH-4 Republican, safe seat
OH-3 Democrat, safe seat
OH-2 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026