Riding profile

OH-10

US House district — OH · Mixed · us oh

The question

OH-10: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

OH-10, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

TURNER, MICHAEL R REP.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Turner, Michael R Rep.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Beckett, Janice

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kinner, Jan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Knickerbocker, Kristina

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pombo, Tony

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
84%
Mean margin (pts)
2.7
P(close race)
88%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.2%
  • Democrat 48.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereOH-10 51.2%48.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +4.5 51.9% −3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
19.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 10 (39010) 92%
  • Congressional District 8 (39008) 8%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026