Ohio’s 1st District

U.S. House · OH-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.5 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 54.0%

Greg Landsman, incumbent
Republican 46.0%

Eric Conroy

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 74% chance (84% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	84%
Orbit	Democrat	74%
50/50 blend	Democrat	79%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
OH-1	54.0%	46.0%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−0.9	43.9%+2.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Quantus Insights	19–Oct 21, 2026	561	likely voters	Greg Landsman (D) 48 Eric Conroy (R) 44 Nathan Weise (Lib.) 1	See the poll
Torchlight Strategies Scenario 1	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 2, 2026	400	likely voters	Greg Landsman (D) 46 Eric Conroy (R) 44 Nathan Weise (Lib.) 5	See the poll
Torchlight Strategies Scenario 2	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 2, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 45 Generic Democrat (D) 45	See the poll
Quantus Insights	21–Aug 24, 2026	509	likely voters	Greg Landsman (D) 48 Eric Conroy (R) 45	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Greg Landsman · Democrat

Primary results

Held May 5, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Greg Landsman	67.9%	36,984 votes
Republican primary	Eric Conroy	71.9%	25,603 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Greg Landsman
source
Republican Challenger

Eric Conroy
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 25.3 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 9.5 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 1 52%
Former district 2 38%
Former district 8 9%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

OH-10 Republican, toss-up
OH-8 Republican, toss-up
OH-15 Republican, toss-up
OH-3 Democrat, safe seat
OH-4 Republican, safe seat
OH-2 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026