Riding profile
OH-8
The question
OH-8: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.0
- P(close race)
- 70%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereOH-8 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +7.1 | 54.3% −6.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
OH-8, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
DAVIDSON, WARREN
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Davidson, Warren
-
Democrat Challenger Grant, Madaris
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 8
(39008)94%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026