Riding profile

OH-8

US House district — OH · Mixed · us oh

The question

OH-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

OH-8, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DAVIDSON, WARREN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Davidson, Warren

  • Democrat Challenger

    Grant, Madaris

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.3
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.6%
  • Democrat 45.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereOH-8 54.6%45.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.0 51.9% −6.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
24.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 8 (39008) 94%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026