Ohio’s 8th District
U.S. House · OH-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 59% chance (78% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 78% |
| Orbit | Republican | 59% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 69% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| OH-8 | 53.1% | 47.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+9.2 | 54.9%−7.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Warren Davidson · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Vanessa Enoch | 74.5% | 32,336 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Warren Davidson | 100.0% | 52,629 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 24.7 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 8.4 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 8 94%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated